A new year approaches, fraught with uncertainty and concern and yet awash with possibilities and enthusiasm. In short, just like any other year.
We viewed 2023 as the first year since the pandemic that travel had fully reopened around the globe, and travel agents' clients responded by going bananas for vacations, particularly in Europe but also Japan, cruises and the Caribbean. At the end of 2022, we predicted that travel advisors would be "great busy" in 2023; for the most part that came to pass.
But the era of revenge travel finally appeared to decelerate toward the latter half of the year, and now we're faced with: What? The normalization of travel? A new level of travel? The "experiences over things" era? Something else entirely?
And as leisure travel bookings slow to merely busy and not frenzied, other events have arisen that may impact vacation habits in 2024. While travel advisors are reporting robust forward bookings, there are a number of things they're keeping a watchful eye on.
On a global scale, the war between Israel and Hamas is the first that comes to mind. Some tour operators have reported that it has slowed demand to travel to some destinations in the Middle East, and cruise lines have repositioned ships in that area.
The Russia-Ukraine war also continues; although its impact on travel appears to have mitigated, who knows whether an escalation could change the equation? Our relationship with China is another big question mark.
It's an election year, which could disrupt some travelers' plans (on the other hand, some might want to vacation just to escape the stressful headlines!). It's an Olympic year, which may mean hiccups to travel in and around the host city of Paris.
On the environmental front, we might see other natural disasters and events like we did this year, such as wildfires, earthquakes and hurricanes. And that global warming trend: Will it be hot as blazes again this summer, prompting changes in travel arrangements and a continued shift to shoulder-season travel and cooler destinations?
Within the travel industry, we're still watching the return of business travel and how it can lift the fortunes of airlines, hotels and major cities. An October poll from GBTA said that most corporate-travel buyers expect their travel budgets to increase or hold steady next year, and most said they don't expect economic concerns to limit business travel..
But there's that unpredictable phrase: "economic concerns."
In our Travel Industry Survey of advisors this fall, 42% of respondents said U.S. economic concerns were a concern for them. A long-predicted recession has so far failed to materialize, but of course in the meantime inflation has been a persistent thorn in retailers' sides; indeed, the biggest concern for advisors in our survey was travel's cost and high airfares and fees.
That might be good news for domestic and short-haul destinations. The Travel Industry Survey recorded its biggest increase in international travel in its history in 2023, going from 55% of advisor booking to 78%. But as pandemic-era savings dry up, political drama comes to the fore and travel costs remain high, perhaps clients will opt to stay closer to home and re-rediscover the U.S.
We're already betting on a recovery in Hawaii, which was devastated by the fires on Maui.
We're also betting on cruise, which has been on a strong rebound in 2023 and shows no sign of slowing. Big debuts like the Icon of the Seas and the Queen Anne should keep the enthusiasm high.
We're betting on another strong year for Europe: Based on everything our advisor and supplier sources tell us, U.S. travelers still want Italy, France, Greece, Scandinavia and everything in between. And we have our eye on far-flung destinations like Australia and strength in Mexico and the Caribbean.
One thing we're not betting on: That travelers will stay home.